It’s going to be interesting to watch because the usual rationale that China is spying on you doesn’t work for open models people can run locally. And we now see that even in the US, majority of the startups are using Chinese models already. So, there 's a lot of capital invested into continuing to have access to these models. On the other hand, we have these massive AI corps in the US whose entire business model is threatened, and who will spend colossal amounts of money lobbying to ban the competition.

It’s really getting there, it’s the first local model that really does feel like frontier quality.

🤣

It’s honestly shocking how good Qwen 3.6:27b is, it actually outperforms Qwen 3.5:397b which itself was released only in February. I’m convinced that local models are the future. In a year or two, we’ll probably get to the point where local models are as good as Claude is today, and at that point it kind of doesn’t even really matter if frontier keeps getting better. It’s going to be good enough for vast majority of use cases. On top of that, you can already do a lot with tooling to make the model perform better. This paper is a great example. And I think this is very much an underexplored area. Current agentic harnesses are very primitive in nature, they just give the model some tools to play with, but do little in a way of guidance. ATLAS is a really interesting project in that’s attempting to make a smarter harness, and their results are pretty impressive. If you’re already running Qwen locally, I recommend checking it out.

if somebody already has access to your machine, but doesn’t have root privileges

I mean, literally the first link in my reply is saying that household savings in China are at record high levels. 🤷

When the cost of hosing, the basic necessity for living, drops that is in fact a very good thing. And the record high savings number clearly demonstrates that housing is not a primary investment vehicle for majority of the population. As Xi put it, hosing is for living. This was an intentional policy choice and a correct one.

If you think that Chinese society has been financialized then you’re utterly clueless on the subject and have no business discussing it.

Chinese household savings hit a record high in 2024 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-bank-earnings-01-12-2024/card/chinese-household-savings-hit-another-record-high-xqyky00IsIe357rtJb4j

90% of families in the country own their home giving China one of the highest home ownership rates in the world. What’s more is that 80% of these homes are owned outright, without mortgages or any other leans. https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/03/30/how-people-in-china-afford-their-outrageously-expensive-homes

Student debt in China is virtually non-existent. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jlim/2016/08/29/why-china-doesnt-have-a-student-debt-problem/

It’s pretty clear that there is very little negative impact from housing prices falling on the vast majority of the population. And it’s great news for young people who are moving from countryside to the cities and can now afford cheap housing.

The key reason why 2008 was a clusterfuck was because Obama decided to bail out the bankers and fuck the working class in the process.

It’s a lot cheaper to use hosted models and it’s open source so you can run them in house and customize them any way you like. And in terms of quality, there’s no significant difference. So, everybody is naturally using cheap and open models.

I don’t see any reason why their asset bubble will be crippling. The reason it’s crippling in capitalist economies of the west is cause the government is expected to bail out the investors. In China, they just let these companies fail and then nationalize their assets if needed. If you look at the whole real estate bubble, there was never any crash there precisely because it was a handful of rich investors who ended up eating the loss instead of it being socialized.

and closed source

looking forward to finally having cheap ram and chips

yup

they don’t have https, there are some sites that still run on http believe it or not

yeah lots of nostalgia there

I think it’s safe to say that by 2025 there was compromise on the 8xxx or 9xxx Kirin chips out there at that time.

No, it’s not to safe that at all. You’re making a really wild jump here. It’s like saying that if old version of chips iPhone uses were vulnerable we could say that current ones are. You are firmly into speculation territory here. I don’t know why it’s so hard for you to just admit that your thesis is not supported by evidence.

Remember though that I’m not claiming these leaks represent the extent of le capability today, but the extent of their capability then. Over time we can expect (and can see based n the expansion of their claims and the capabilities asserted in their leaks over time!) that they would get access to new methods of compromising phones, we just can’t know the exact extent until something leaks.

Except this equally applies to American phones, and in addition to that, there is a risk of intentional backdoors. So, to reiterate for the tenth time now, American phones are just as likely to be vulnerable to malicious attackers, and on top of that they are produced by companies directly working with US and Israel making it likely they would have intentional backdoors. That’s a strictly worse scenario.

Again, the evidence speaks directly against your analysis. You’re trying to contort the evidence here to fit your narrative instead of looking at it objectively.

Phone security with burgerland characterisitcs lol.

So, to recap, you have not provided any source that suggests modern Chinese devices that are in production today are vulnerable, or any less secure than ios or android. The brute force support is not for the new devices according to your link. It’s for the older devices. I specifically screenshotted the relevant text in the last reply. The fact that a old device could be brute forced does not extend to the argument that new device can. There is no logical reason to suggest that.

Your assertion that pixels, graphene and iphones are safest against the hardware/software tools the police have is not backed by facts. The capabilities of these toolkits DO NOT back up your assertion because they do not show that CURRENT devices are more vulnerable.

There is nothing that would convince me of your point because your point is not based on facts available to us. It’s based on your assertion that android and ios are more secure which is not supported by evidence available. If you were to provide concrete proof that these devices that are currently on sale are vulnerable, then we could have a discussion about that https://consumer.huawei.com/en/phones/

And given that there is no evidence available to suggest that Chinese devices are more vulnerable, then the next question to ask is which vendor is more likely to be compromised. The answer there is obviously that it would be the American vendor.

neat

It’s honestly bizarre to watch Europeans to allow themselves to be used as a US proxy like that.

It does seem like the regimes in UK, France, and Germany are on their last legs though. And I wonder if the coming energy crisis might finally push them over the edge.

I agree, the economics will force continued pragmatism even if the right gets into power. With fossil fuel prices now being structurally high due to lack of physical supply, going with renwables will be the only option to keep the economy afloat.